PARA ALGUNOS ES HORA DE RECOGER EL BARRILETE

El mercado subió casi sin parar desde los mínimos del 9 de Marzo. ¿Un nuevo "bull market", o un rally dentro de una bear market? La respuesta no importa, ya que ambos tienen algo en común: que se dé una corrección a la suba de los últimos dos meses tanto para consolidar el nuevo "bull market" o para seguir la baja en el "bear market".

Ahora bien, algunos esperaban que la correción se diera hace un mes, otros hace dos semanas, otros....
La realidad es que no ocurre. Ayer los principales indicadores americanos cayeron fuerte, pero hoy volvieron a subir. Entonces, ¿que hacemos?

Como precaución no estaría mal fijar un "traling stop loss" sobre nuestra posición (un stop loss que vamos moviendo hacia arriba si el mercado sigue subiendo, pero se mantiene fijo si cae). Acá tendriamos la posibilidad de seguir la tendencia, pero con una pérdida acotada.
El riesgo es que el mercado está tan volatil que perfectamente podría abrir un día con un Gap en los precios, con lo cual se ejecutaría el Stop Loss, pero a precios inferiores.

Igualmente, antes de tomar la decisión me pareció interesante compartir con Uds. algunos comentarios de importantes analistas económicos para que les ayude a decidir.


"The market seems to be looking as if this is going to be an average recession, but it's not," said Paul Krugman, Princeton University's Nobel Prize-winning economist.
He goes on to warn that the run-up in stocks can't be justified by the fundamentals: "It looks to me now as if the markets are now pricing in a rapid recovery, that they're pricing in a V-shaped recession, which I consider extremely unlikely."

Nouriel Roubini also thinks the forecasts of a recovery are "too optimistic."

Bill Bonner from the The Daily Reckoning:
"..stocks get expensive...then they become cheap. That's just the way it works. Prices go up and down in long cycles. At the top of the cycle, they're very expensive - over 20 times earnings. At the bottom, they're very cheap, under 5 times earnings. At the top of the cycle you might need as many as 43 ounces of gold to buy the Dow stocks. At the bottom, one or two ounces will do the job.

At present, stocks are not cheap. In nominal terms, the Dow is 8 times higher than it was when the bull market began in August 1982. In terms of gold, it takes about 9 ounces today to buy the Dow. That's a lot less than it took in 1998, when the Dow was 43 times the price of an ounce of gold. But it's a lot more than you find at real bottoms. At the bottom of the cycle in 1982, you could buy the entire Dow for just one ounce of gold. And in terms of P/E ratios, you can buy a few stocks at very low price-to-earnings ratios today, but the majority are still above 15. When they get down to 5, we'll talk."

Encuesta:

Veremos.....