UNA VISION GEOPOLITICA DEL MUNDO

Me pareció muy interesante este artículo que toca diversos puntos de la geopolítica mundial. No es un forecast, sino una visión de temas a monitorear ya que pueden afectar cualquier estrategia de largo plazo.


Intelligence Guidance Summary:
By George Friedman


The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

Analysis

All guidance from last week remains in place (see those below). Supplemental guidance:

1. The situation in Iraq: Let's spend next week focusing on something that is not happening: the war in Iraq. The bombing in a Baghdad market really drove home how few there are. So did indications that Iraq is going to open the oil fields to investment. We need to review the status of the war carefully. Our perception has been that the war is winding down and the general outlines of the resolution are in place. Time to do a net assessment re-evaluating our position.

2. China and oil prices: China has lifted the caps on oil prices, the Saudis are promising to raise output and consumption appears to be dropping. That would indicate that oil prices will fall, but that is not our business. Our business remains figuring out what higher energy prices do to the international system. The China watch remains essential. That is the center of gravity of the problem. They are still trying to ride it out with subsidies. Questions like "What is the status of their cash reserves?" and "What is happening to export profit margins?" become very interesting. They are spending real money to keep these caps on to keep those margins up. We do not know where prices will go but we know where they are. Let's drill into the reserve and margin question.

3. Venezuela and Cuba: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez tried to create a police state then backed off. Next thing we hear are stories the he is giving sanctuary to Hezbollah, which we assume is psychological pressure from Washington. Then he turns up in Havana for talks with Fidel and Raul Castro. In the meantime the European Union drops whatever sanctions are left on Cuba. Cuba needs Venezuelan help on oil. But it also seems to want to get out of its isolation. It's not all that interesting what Chavez said to the Castros, but it would really be interesting to find out what Raul said to Chavez. Fidel cranked him up. Is Raul following the old line with Chavez, or telling him to calm down?

4. Israeli domestic politics: What is holding Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert up? In any other country the allegations alone would have bought him down, not to mention Ehud Barak, a coalition partner, calling for his resignation. With the Syrian talks clearly proceeding and Hamas agreeing to a truce with Israel, things are at a crucial point. Since this is the Middle East, that's usually when disaster strikes. Olmert's fall would seem to derail everything, but he does not fall. Let's dissect the Israeli situation and see what we can learn.

5. Zimbabwe and South Africa: Zimbabwe is not important in itself. South Africa is, or more precisely, the degree to which South Africa plans to exercise power in Africa. With commodity prices high, Africa becomes important, and as the Chinese increase their presence, the South Africans could use their longstanding close ties to move in as well. It would make geopolitical and business sense to do that. Zimbabwe is the test for South Africa. If either South African President Thabo Mbeki or African National Congress President Jacob Zuma can help pull Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe out of office, his authority in the continent will be solid. Mbeki and Zuma have the power, but it isn't clear they have the will. If they do not have the will in Zimbabwe, they will not have it to create a sphere of influence elsewhere. The Zimbabwe crisis is in a quiet phase but that won't hold indefinitely. We need to watch South Africa to see if it will act.

Ongoing items:

1. Oil and food markets: Oil and food prices remain at the top of the list. We need to be watching carefully what the Arabian Peninsula is doing with its money and what the Russians are planning to do. In the immediate, we need to be following global crop forecasts. Unseasonable rain in the U.S. Midwest has threatened to bring the corn harvest down by about 10 percent this year. Flooding is hitting China's harvests right now as well, and corn crops in Mexico have been threatened by unseasonably dry weather. As other crops see seasonal disruptions worldwide, we could see increased fluctuations in the prices of these goods. Particularly vulnerable to increases in the price of corn are Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Egypt. Mexico and Egypt are particularly prone to food-related civic unrest, a development that must be monitored carefully. Along those lines, all food crops around the globe must be carefully monitored as prices continue to climb. This is much more immediately significant than oil prices right now. If there are crop failures larger than the U.S. corn crop looming, prices are really going to soar. That is not going to result in a one or two point drop in gross domestic product; it can result in chaos in large parts of the world. We don't know if this is going to happen, but we need to be on top of this whole process hour by hour.

2. China's economy: China is getting hit both ways. As one source put it, bad margins are disappearing. As they disappear, we can expect massive problems. The government has plenty of resources in the short run, and we can expect things to hold together until after the Olympics, but we need to watch carefully to make sure that they do. By then, all of these pressures might recede. But that is dubious. September -- and the rest of 2008 -- should be interesting for China.

3. The European Union: The Irish referendum on the European Union's Lisbon Treaty is in one sense no surprise. The EU is based on unanimity, and there was no way this was going to pass without someone blackballing it. There are two choices here. Either the EU accepts that it is an economic bloc and not a proto-nation, or the EU changes the rules on how constitutions are ratified. Both are hard for the union to do, and as a unit the EU does not do hard things. We need to watch the Germans and French and see what they have up their sleeves. The burden especially falls on France to patch things up because it is taking over the bloc's presidency soon. Never forget that the French solution to violating the Stability Pact by higher than acceptable deficits was to ignore it. There are ways out of this. Let's figure out if there is any consensus among the major players as to what these solutions will be.

4. Turmoil within Iran: Iran is giving off more and more signals of political turmoil. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad certainly is not backing off on his public statements, and his opponents -- some pretty powerful -- have said things it is hard to back off from, too. Meanwhile, from what we can tell, the clerical establishment is not looking to oust Ahmadinejad, preferring to see him exit the system next June when he is up for re-election. The clerics fear an intra-conservative rift could cost the conservatives next year's presidential election -- hence the naming of Ahmadinejad's political foil, Ali Larijani, as parliament speaker to contain the president's moves, especially on the foreign policy matters that are preventing Iran from prospering in a time of high energy prices. Meanwhile, the European Union's foreign policy adviser is in Tehran to offer new incentives in the nuclear controversy. In the midst of the rhetoric of defiance, there the Iranians have faintly signaled that they might be ready to reach a compromise of sorts. So let's not take our eyes of this.

5. U.S.-Iranian talks: The controversy over a future U.S. military presence in Iraq, a key part of U.S.-Iraqi strategic talks, continues to escalate. Opposition to any deal that could cut into Baghdad's sovereignty has brought together not just warring Shiite factions but also elements from both major sectarian groups. The Iranians are obviously making this an issue because it not only undercuts their influence in the U.S.-Iraqi dynamic but could create a security threat for them. The Iranians have done more than issue statements; they are threatening to unleash a Shiite uprising -- something that has not happened throughout U.S. forces' involvement in Iraq. Obviously U.S.-Iraqi talks should be watched, but more importantly, we should keep an eye on any signs of renewed U.S.-Iranian contacts because both Washington and Tehran are posturing and do not seek a confrontation.

6. U.S.-Pakistani relations: A U.S. military strike in Pakistan's northwest tribal belt struck a Pakistani military border post and killed 11 soldiers, including an officer. The two sides have agreed to jointly investigate the matter, but Washington's position has been that it struck at hostile forces and the strike was in line with standard operating procedures. This incident clearly shows that Washington's attitude towards Islamabad has entered a new phase where U.S. forces will engage in routine overt military actions -- something Stratfor had forecast for some time. The thing to watch is the reaction from not just the Pakistani street but the state, especially the army.

7. Chavez's difficulties: Chavez reversed himself on three policies: his stance on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a new tax and a new intelligence law that would have required citizens to spy on one another. In the past he has been enormously surefooted. Last week he seemed to be behaving like a man under a great deal of pressure from all sides who had engaged in some pretty careless politics, got burned and retreated. He seems to be weakening. Venezuelan state-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela's inability to pay its contractors bodes ill for the company's ability to keep funding Chavez's social programs. Without that support, Chavez is in trouble. We need to keep watching for cracks in Chavez's party as the November local elections approach. Ongoing dissatisfaction with Chavez could give the opposition the fuel it needs to pursue change.

8. Asian economies: Vietnam is having economic problems. Not important in itself, unless like the Thai bhat in 1997, it signals deeper problems. We see issues in Korea and elsewhere. Asia's economies have always appeared to be shakier than others to us. Let's evaluate our position based on these rapid developments. SEGUIR LEYENDO...

CAPITALIZACION BURSATIL

En la siguiente nota de The Bespoke Investment Group, podemos ver la relación entre las bolsas más relevantes del mundo.

Percent of World Market Cap by Country

Yesterday we highlighted that the United States' market cap as a percentage of global market cap has been on the decline. Below we provide a table of the numbers for 29 other countries. As shown, US stocks still dominate world market cap by a wide margin at 29.9%. Japan has the second largest stock market representation at 8.2%, followed by the UK (6.8%), China (5.4%) and France (4.4%). China is noteworthy because it made up just 1.7% of global market cap at the start of 2004, and now it has the fourth largest representation.

We also sorted the list of countries by how much their % of world market cap has changed since the start of 2004. As shown, Saudi Arabia has increased the most at 877.5% -- going from 0.1% to 0.9%. Saudi Arabia is followed by Egypt, Qatar, Brazil, UAE, China, Russia and India. With oil's enormous rise over the last few years, it's no surprise that many of the countries with the biggest gains are major oil producing countries. The US is at the very bottom of the list with a significant decline of 31.6%. Japan is down 20%, the UK is down 12%, Italy is down 10%, and France is down 5%.

SEGUIR LEYENDO...

PETROLEO

Comparto con Uds. este artículo que leí sobre el petróleo del Newsletter Money & Markets.


Oil: It's not too late to profit!

by Larry Edelson

Being bullish (or bearish) on a market should not mean being blind.

For instance, I've been forecasting sharply higher oil prices ever since I turned bullish way back in 2001. And I am still bullish. But I also keep my eyes wide open for anything that might get in the way of oil's bull market.

I often step back in order to make sure I'm not overly influenced by greed and fear, which are the dominant emotions on Wall Street. This is critically important when a market gets as euphoric as oil is today.

As oil busted out to new record highs again, soaring more than $16 in just two days last week, I questioned every indicator at my disposal. I wanted to figure out where oil prices would go next, objectively and without emotion.

And here's my conclusion ...

Oil's Next Major Stop Will Be $150 a Barrel!

That's my near-term target, and has been for quite some time. Here are five reasons why ...

First, oil prices are rising even though the U.S. economy is tanking. That's a very bullish sign.

Second, U.S. refineries are operating at levels considerably less than their capacity.In fact, refineries in the U.S. are running at less than 90% of capacity. The culprits: Poor maintenance, reduced productivity of workers, no new technology, and more.

Third, nearly all of the same, powerful, supply-and-demand forces that have driven oil from $13 to $138 are still firmly in place today:

• Supply: The world is no closer to resolving the disruptions and bottlenecks in the oil market now at $134 oil, than it was at $30, $40 or $50 oil.

The same trouble spots are in the news. The same names keep cropping up on the trading floors: The Gulf of Mexico ... the North Sea ... Venezuela ... Nigeria ... Russia ... Iraq ... Iran.

• Demand: China is still modernizing at a rapid pace. India is still in a massive growth spurt. The rest of Asia's economies are still surging. Nothing has changed.

Never forget that between Russia, India and China; more than three billion new capitalists have appeared on the world markets.

What's that got to do with oil and gas prices? EVERYTHING! Consider this: Although the U.S. is the #1 consumer of oil, the U.S. represents only 4.8% of the world's population.

That means that more than 95% of the world's population can dramatically impact oil inventories!

Moreover, at least 50% of the world's population (in Asia) lives in countries where the economic growth is as much as 14 times greater than it is in the U.S.

So while demand may be or will soon slump in the U.S., demand overseas is more than adequate to offset the decline, and indeed, is probably growing at rates higher than is being reported.

Fourth, although oil has exploded higher, it's not yet "off the charts." Quite to the contrary, the charts show it still has plenty of upside potential left on this move — to my longer-term target of about $200 per barrel.

And even if I'm dead wrong, I would not bet on oil and gas prices coming down much at all. Even in the worst case scenario for oil bulls, the most I could see oil correcting is back to the $100 level. And I don't think that's going to happen. But if it does, welcome it as a buying opportunity!

Fifth, several sources I talk to in Asia tell me China is now buying oil like crazy!

The reasons ...

• The Olympics are just around the corner and Beijing does not want an estimated 10 million tourists and athletes from all over the world to put up with brownouts.

• The recent earthquake. In no way does Beijing want its citizens to suffer from high oil and gas prices or brownouts this summer, especially in the aftermath of the earthquake that sadly took nearly 70,000 lives, and displaced five million people.
  

• The rural countryside is already angry with Beijing on the lax building code enforcement and building cronyism. The last thing Beijing wants is an uprising on energy prices.

• China's strategic oil reserves are now being filled, with an aim toward storing at least 30 days worth of oil imports, or roughly 292 million barrels of oil.

The key question: How does China get the oil to fill up these huge storage tanks?

By going into the open market and bidding for oil aggressively. I suspect that's the hidden force that's been helping to propel oil sharply higher ... and will continue to do so.

End Result: Gasoline Prices Will Continue To Explode!

A gallon of self-serve unleaded gas just hit a national average of $4 a gallon this past Sunday. While oil is grabbing all the headlines, gas prices continue climbing higher, with much more upside still to come.

With crude oil soaring ... the summer driving season about to go into full swing ... and hurricane season having officially begun June 1st in the U.S. — don't be shocked to see gas prices at the pump soon surge to $5 per gallon, and perhaps even higher.

To most of you, that may sound high. But consider yourself lucky because gas prices here are much cheaper than overseas. In London, you'll pay about $8.56 a gallon; in Amsterdam and France almost $10. That's mostly because of high taxes. But it shows you what is possible, and ultimately, what people will tolerate.

Plus, never forget the more subtle, but equally powerful force behind the bull market in oil and gas. There's no avoiding it ...

The U.S. Dollar Is in Trouble Again!

Why is the U.S. dollar starting to fall again, sliding 1.4% last week, even after rare supportive statements from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke?

Simple: Investors and traders see the slumping U.S. economy ... the negative real interest rates in this country ... and they don't buy Bernanke's BS one bit!

Don't get me wrong. There will be occasional rallies in the value of the U.S. dollar. Some will even seem strong, last longer than expected, and give the appearance that the bear market in the dollar is over.

But don't be fooled by those bounces, or any comments from anyone in Washington.

Fact: The only way this country's economy can survive the mountains of debt and credit going bad is through inflation, and lots of it, via a systematic DEVALUATION OF THE DOLLAR.

No one in Washington will admit this. Most citizens don't want to hear it, either. But that is what's happening. Your money is being devalued by Washington with the hope that it will create enough inflation in asset prices to offset the debt loads that exist on balance sheets from Main Street to Pennsylvania Ave. to Wall Street.

My view: That means higher prices to come for oil ... gas ... gold ... food ... you name it, nearly every natural resource and hard asset under the sun.

My Suggestions for Late-Comers To the Energy Bull Market

If you're not already on board with investments that are soaring in this market right now, it's not too late. So consider following these four steps:

1.) Decide how much you are comfortable allocating to the energy sector as an investment.

2.) Then split that figure in half.

3.) Put one half in natural resource investments such as the ones I've been mentioning here in Money and Markets. Those include Fidelity Select Energy Fund (FSENX), United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), Profunds UltraSector Oil & Gas (ENPIX), and the U.S. Global Resources Fund (PSPFX).

4.) Keep the other half of your allocation in cash, saving it as ammo for the next correction — which may be a very short pullback or even a bit deeper. Either way, it should be a great opportunity to peel off some of this cash and use it to add to your long-term natural resource positions.

___________________________________________________________________

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

SEGUIR LEYENDO...

MARC FABER EN BLOOMBERG

Adjunto una entrevista que le realizó Bloomberg a Marc Faber.

Faber Says Oil, Stocks, Real Estate Are Overvalued (Transcript)

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd., talked with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Erik Schatzker yesterday about the outlook for stocks, oil and commodity prices, and his investment strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)

(This is not a legal transcript. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.)

CAROL MASSAR, BLOOMBERG NEWS: For a closer look at the market, we have an exclusive interview with Marc Faber, managing director and founder of Marc Faber Ltd., and publisher of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report. He comes to us on the phone from Zurich this morning. Marc, good morning.

MARC FABER, MANAGING DIRECTOR, MARC FABER LTD. Yes, hi, hello.

MASSAR: Hi, Friday's sell-off, you got oil, that unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, the most in more than two decades, big sell-off in stocks. Do you think it was overdone or did investors get it just right in your view?

FABER: Well, I don't think it was overdone at all. I think it's a delayed reaction, as to the view that obviously as the economy is already in recession, corporate profits will disappoint, in particular the consensus earnings for 2009 are still far too high and assets adjusted downwards. Obviously, the valuations become less compelling.

MASSAR: Alright, so, what's your outlook from here, that I mean this morning, of course, Asia sold off, no surprise, but Europe's holding up fairly well.

FABER: Well, I would say what we are in is kind of a water torture bear market. A lot of stocks peaked out already in 2005 like the homebuilders; then in 2006, the subprime lenders; then in 2007, all financial stocks. The stocks that have performed well over the last 18 months are material stocks and energy stocks and cyclicals.

And I think, the cyclicals and the energy and the material stocks, like steel and iron ore companies, they will now all become under pressure. Probably, the big downside in banks is kind of running out.

In other words, we have had a huge decline in financial stocks. I think they will go lower and I think they are unattractive. But I think other sectors of the market that have held up well are now vulnerable.

MASSAR: Alright. So, where would you be buying or suggesting investors buy? As you are saying, don't maybe don't go into energy, don't go into materials, and so on.

FABER: I think the question should be what sectors should be sold. I don't believe that investors should be buying all the time and that each time, the market drops a little bit, that gives a long-term buying opportunity. I don't see any compelling value in equities. I also don't see any compelling value in say, real estate or in the commodity markets, I think asset markets are still inflated.

And we are in an environment contrary to the last 25 years during which leverage increased. We are in a period of deleveraging, just consider that the brokerage industry on $1 of capital has liabilities of $20. In other words, the leverage is 20 to 1, and I think that has to come down and it will affect corporate profits across the board.

MASSAR: All right. So, are you saying that investors should park most of their money in cash at this point or what?

FABER: Well, cash is not desirable in the sense that it loses its purchasing power because we have a money printer at the Fed, Mr. Bernanke. And the problem of Mr. Bernanke's policy is that it hurts the average of the median household in America since he cut the Fed fund rate from 5.25 percent on September 18 to 2 percent, the price of oil has gone from $75 to $140.

I am not saying that he is only responsible but he is partially responsible for the soaring food prices and for soaring energy prices, because his monetary policies inevitably is inflationary and as a result, leads to a lower dollar.

MASSAR: In terms of oil, Marc, the Oil Minister is saying that the surge in prices was unjustified. Do you agree?

FABER: No, not entirely. First of all, obviously, the increased demands from countries like China and India have shifted the demand curve for oil to the right and resulted in a higher equilibrium price. Now, is the price of $140 justified or not? I am not sure.

I think it should correct, partly because international liquidity is now still growing but at a decelerating rate, and that usually leads to poor performance of asset markets including commodities. And so, my view would be that commodities will rather ease, as some have already done. Nickel is down 50 percent, wheat has been down 50 percent as well as lead, and lead and zinc.

So, we are going to have corrections. But in general, I think if you have a money printer at the Fed, it's very clear that you can increase the quantity of money, but you cannot increase the quantity of gold and commodities at the same rate. So, money loses its purchasing power against commodities where the supply cannot be increased indefinitely.

ERIK SCHATZKER: Marc, I just want to confirm. Are you suggesting that investors should get out of oil and should get out of all the other commodities such as agricultural commodities, whether it be rice, wheat, or corn et cetera?

FABER: I think that investors have to be aware that the price of oil has gone from $12 in '98 to now roughly $140. And so, the increase is a 12 times. I don't think that oil will go up another 12 times. Can it go up another $20? Of course, it can. But the big upside is now gone.

And so, I would be a little bit careful about blindly buying commodities, I think they are on the high side, the way the real estate was on the high side, and the way the stocks were on the high side. I am not saying this is?I would certainly be careful about buying them here.

SCHATZKER: So, you don't buy commodities, but at the same time, you don't hold cash. What investment do you go into right now?

FABER: Well, I mean I think in this environment, I was referring to a relative tightening of global liquidity because of the declining U.S. trade and current accounts that at the present time. Because of that, the dollar has essentially some upside potential here, it has, but of course, if Mr. Bernanke continues to play in commodity and push down the Fed fund rate to zero, then the dollar won't go anywhere. But as of today, I think the dollar is relatively undervalued with the euro. I feel like gold could (inaudible) gone up that much.

MASSAR: Alright, so, if you had to pick one investment if you will, so kind of bet the bank, Marc, I don't know, for the next 6 to 12 months, what it would be, the dollar, the gold, what is it?

FABER: Well, I would take a holiday and forget about the speeches of the Fed governors because their economic knowledge is, in my opinion, extremely limited and each time they speak, they actually confuse the issue. And so, there is very little transparency at the present time, although in the financial sector. I have no idea whether Citigroup is a good sign here.

MASSAR: So, what let me break it, I mean Ben Bernanke inherited certain things when he came to the Fed. He did ..

FABER: No, no, no. He was a Fed Governor, he was the Fed governor underneath the Greenspan that has a lot of influence and he actually influenced Mr. Greenspan to cut the Fed fund rates after January 3, 2001 down to 1 percent and keep it at 1 percent until June 2004.

MASSAR: Alright, but who is responsible for the financial fall out of the subprime mess? I mean that certainly wasn't his fault and yet?

FABER: They are collectively responsible. They are collectively, the Fed governors, all of them and especially, Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke. And Mr. Bernanke has written about essentially printing money and dropping money from helicopters and supporting asset markets with monetary tools. You can't deny that.

MASSAR: Okay. Hey, Marc, we've got to run. Always good to get some time with you. I know you're headed for a plane. Have a safe trip and we will talk to you soon. Thank you.

SCHATZKER: Yes, thank you very much.

FABER: Thank you.

MASSAR: Marc Faber, managing director and founder of Marc Faber Ltd., also, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, joining us on the phone.

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Last Updated: June 10, 2008 11:47 EDT SEGUIR LEYENDO...