¿BLACK MONDAY, O RECIEN EMPIEZA?

Analizando las caídas historicas del SP500, como dice un periodista de radio: "Lo peor está por venir".......

Biggest S&P 500 Declines

As it currently stands, the decline of 7.8% in the S&P 500 ranks 15th in terms of one-day losses going back to 1927. Below we highlight the 20 largest daily drops in the index sorted by decline and date. As shown, today is set to be the biggest drop since October 26th, 1987.

Update: the final tally for the day has the S&P 500 down 8.79%, making it the biggest decline since Black Monday in 1987.

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NO TODO CAE

One Stock Up

One. Just one stock in the S&P 500 was up today. And guess which one it was? Campbell Soup (CPB). Talk about a bomb shelter stock!

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DEMASIADA INTERVENCION EN USA

Que hubieran opinado los inversores extranjeros si la argentina prohibía las ventas cortas. Nos hubieran dicho anticapilistas como mínimo.
Ahora Uk y USA lo hicieron. Esto es muy grave para los mercados. El prohibir las ventas cortas no va mejorar la situación del sistema financiero americano.

Tampoco concuerdo con la "estatización" de los malos créditos hipotecarios. Todo esto frenará el impacto de la crisis en los mercados, pero creo que dañará seriamente la confianza sobre el "capitalismo" americano.
El tiempo dirá.

A continuación adjunto un artículo, uno de los tantos, que han salido a criticar la actuación de la Fed, la Sec, y el Tesoro.



The Socialists Killed The Short Sellers

There was a perverse honor in being a short-seller. It was an honor among thieves, but the group usually made lots of money by taking significant risks.

Short-selling was based on one of the foundations of capitalism. Making money betting on disaster is just as much a part of the economy as taking the optimist's side.

Banning short-selling in financial stocks, which both the US and UK have done, will halt the activities of the so-called naked shorters. These firms short shares without borrowing them from other firms. They are required to do that borrowing because it is the basis of their risk. If the stock they borrowed goes up, they have to pay the difference of what the original owner would have made.

Killing short-selling buries naked shorting. It also demolishes the entire market for legitimate gambles that a stock will go down. It subverts one of the most important checks and balances of equities trading.

The regulators feel that poisoning part of the system is the only way to save the whole market. No one will ever know if that is true. Free marketers such as George Soros felt that the whole bloody mess should be sorted out on its own and that the government should simply stand by and watch the world burn. Soros and his ilk were voted down and banned from the property.

Short-selling was always a dirty business, and now the government has decided that it is no business at all.

Financial stocks will rise on the news that the system for betting against them has been crushed. In the process of the shares going higher. there will be very little left to tether them to the earth.

Exuberance will have its day, but it may be that when the next set of banking and brokerage quarterly losses are announced there will be another round of crashing share prices. The shorts will not have been permitted to do their jobs.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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11000 SOPORTE DEL DOW?

El Dow ha retrocedido un 50% de la suba del 10/2/08 al 10/7/08, que en términos de Fibonacci, debería ser un fuerte soporte. ¿Será 11000 el número mágico para un rebote, o irá a buscar 10000 (61.8% de retroceso)?

En base a lo que estaba sucediendo en el post cierre (18:00hs BA) con AIG (el Tesoro americano está analizando la internvención de la misma), mañana abriría por debajo de los 11000.
Veremos. Por las dudas prendamos una vela.

PD (23:00hs): parece que la vela tuvo su efecto. La Fed estaría rescatando a AIG. Veremos mañana.

A continuación el chart extraido de un post de The Bespoke Investment.



Clickear en el mismo para agrandar
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Dow plunges 504! Here's what's next ...

De la newsletter MONEY and MARKETS extraje el siguiente párrafo:

Here's What's Happening and
What We See Coming Next ...

The financial failures you've seen so far are just the tip of the iceberg ...

• Lehman Brothers is merely the first to fail. Expect more in the weeks ahead, possibly starting with those that have the smallest capital cushion.
  
  
• Bank of America is making a horrendous mistake. It's already bogged down with its earlier purchase of Countrywide Financial, a classic pig in the poke. Now, on top of that bad move, it's taking on all the debts and risks of Merrill Lynch.
  
  
• AIG, the biggest insurance firm in the country, is desperately trying to shore up its balance sheet after suffering $18.5 billion in losses over the past three quarters. It's planning to dump assets, raise capital, and asking the Federal Reserve for a $40 billion bridge loan. Don't be surprised if AIG is taken over by insurance regulators in the days ahead. And don't be shocked if more insurance company failures follow.
  
  
• Look out for bigger financial troubles in the banking industry, including not only the names that are in the news, like Washington Mutual and Wachovia, but also at Citicorp, HSBC ... and yes ... Bank of America.

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UNA EXPLICACIÓN SOBRE LA CRISIS SUBPRIME

Encontré este video que explica claramente lo que pasó con la crisis de las hipotecas subprime en USA.
Espero que lo disfruten.





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UNA MIRADA A LAS BOLSAS DEL MUNDO

Esta nota de The Bespoke Investment, nos muestra una rápida imagen de como evolucionaron las principales bolsas del mundo.
Si nos basamos en los gráficos hay algunas bolsas que están para comprar, pero solo en el corto, ya que la volatilidad global parece que va a seguir.

Equity markets across the world have been reeling lately, and our trading range charts for indices of 22 countries highlight the carnage. Countries to recently take big hits include Brazil, Canada, South Africa, and of course, Russia. Any time the price moves below the green shading, it is trading more than 2 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. Below the green shading is considered extreme oversold territory, and prices don't typically stay that oversold for extended periods of time. The one positive chart might be India's Sensex index that has moved back above its 50-day moving average recently and formed a short-term uptrend.






The Bespoke Investment Group
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