ORO: OPORTUNIDAD DE COMPRA: 2° PARTE

El oro sigue mostrando su tendencia alcista. Si corta la doble resistencia de USD 920 (MAv 50ds, y linea de tendencia bajista), podemos esperar la vuelta a los USD 1.000-

Mantenemos el stop en USD 855, ya que existe un fuerte soporte (doble top) en USD 863 aprox.
Veamos como sigue.....

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ORO: OPORTUNIDAD DE COMPRA

El oro ($Gold) cerró a 869 aprox., por encima de la media móvil de 200 días. Oportunidad de compra con un primer target de 930. Stop loss en 855.

Ver chart....



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EN USA TAMBIEN USAN EL METODO DE GUILLERMO MORENO

Hay tres clases de mentiras: las mentiras, las malditas mentiras y las estadísticas.

Mark Twain

Si leemos variados informes de la economía americana, notaremos un gran común denominador. Actualmente los números de los principales indicadores económicos de USA parecen estar manejados para evitar mayores males al ya pésimo hunor del inversor. Luego, en un par de meses corrigen las cifras para atrás cuando el riesgo de generar daño es menor.

Como muestra les paso este extracto del The Daily Pfennig sobre los números del empleo americano....

OK... Enough of all that... I've got some serious stuff to talk about here... And it all begins with Friday's Jobs Jamboree.... I was heading to the airport when the number was released that showed 663,000 more U.S. jobs lost... March's number of -663K, put the unemployment rate at 8.5%... But seriously folks... I'm not using "new math" when I tell you that the real unemployment rate is around 15.6%! I know, I can hear you saying, "Chuck, where in the world did you get that number?"

Ahhh grasshopper... You get 15.6% when you add in all the people that are laid-off but their unemployment benefits have expired... You may recall me telling you this over and over again in the past... But... The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does NOT count people that are unemployed and have had their benefits run out, as unemployed.... What do they count them as? Who knows, but they sure don't count them for what they are! And isn't that really questionable? Why not call them for what they are?

Dean Baker, who is the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, said this about the report.... "There's just no way we're anywhere near a bottom. We'll be really lucky if we stop losing jobs by the end of the year." He went on to say..."We're clearly looking at a worse downturn than they (the Obama administration) had been anticipating when they planned the stimulus. We're going to need some more."

And finally... The thing that really TICKS ME OFF! Was the revision of the Feb job losses... Stealth like, the BLS slid a revision of 86,000 additional jobs lost in Feb to bring the total to 741,000! My friend Ian Mathias over at the 5-Minute Forecast (which by the way if you don't read it, you should!) had this to say about the revision... "That's actually the biggest monthly drop in 59 years. Such a number would have sent stocks to the woodshed back in early February, but since the revision is now so backward looking, there isn't much traders can do. Clever trick, eh?"

La conclusión a cargo del lector....
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ALGO DE TECHNICALS ANALYSIS

En The ETF Corner obtuve los siguientes gráficos sobre los ETF del Dow, S&P, y el Nasdaq 100.

Hay dos puntos que comparto:

1. el mercado está sobre comprado luego de la fuerte suba de las últimas 4 semanas, con lo cual un ajuste no es descartable
2. esta suba, dentro de un ciclo bajista, todavía no termino, más allá de una corrección de corto plazo.

Finalmente todavía faltan los mínimos para poder decir que el ciclo bajista termino.

Veamos ahora los charts:


a) DIA (ETF del Dow):



b) SPY (ETF del S&P):



c) QQQQ (ETF del Nasdaq 100):


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