LA CRISIS AMERICANA YA TIENE SU FILM

Ayer se estreno en U.S.A. el film I.O.U.S.A. Un documental sobre la situación fiscal americana, y que les los está llevando derecho a la peor crisis de su historia.


Se estima que tiene una necesidad financiera de USD 53 trillions basicamente por el sistema de salud Medicare, y el sistema de seguridad social. Además la deuda nacional es de USD 9,6 trillions, la cual crece USD 1,86 billions por día.

Las perspectivas son muy negras, y la verdad que con este escenario el dolar parece caro contra el resto de las monedas. Además el sistema financiero no goza de buena salud.

Por todo esto se sigue viendo al oro como una inversión seguro por los próximos años (5?, 10?, quien sabe).

A continuación el trailer de dicho film.





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US DOLLAR INDEX: FUERTE SIGNO DE SOBRECOMPRA

From the Bespoke Investment Group

Dollar Up Ten Days in a Row

Since our post on the Dollar breakout last week, the currency has continued its trek higher. It is currently trading well into overbought territory, however, and is also up ten days in a row for just the fifth time since we have daily pricing going back to 1971. The last ten-day winning streak for the currency was all the way back in May 1990. The currency has gone up eleven days in a row just twice, and it has never been up twelve days in a row. While we expect the uptrend to continue for the Dollar, it can't go up every day.








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RALLY DEL DOLAR O SOLO CORRECCIÓN

El dólar ha tenido una fuerte suba en la última semana.
Cuando uno analiza las causantes de dicha recuperación no las podrá encontrar en una mejora de la economía. El deficit sigue creciendo, el problema financiero esta lejos de solucionarse, no ha dejado de emitir dolares, y tampoco tienen pensado subir la tasa.
Es cierto que ya se empiezan a notar fuertes sintomas de deterioro en la economía europea, pero según un artículo publicado en GoldMoney.com, que pueden leer a continuación, la verdad habría que buscarla en la intervención realizada por los bancos centrales. A eso hay que sumarle el efecto de quienes estaban vendidos en dólares que tuvieron que salir a cubrir posiciones.

Ante esto la pregunta es ¿cuanto aguantará esta intervención? ¿Hay que olvidarse de un dólar debil? ¿O tomamos esto como una correción y una oportunidad de venta del greenback?
Con un Euro debajo de los 150, y el oro debajo de 900 la respuesta parece resuelta.

Mystery Solved

by James Turk - Founder of GoldMoney

On July 15th the US Dollar Index closed at 71.87, the lowest close since reaching its record low in April. This index was in the process of breaking down, and in fact it had actually fallen out of its uptrend channel.

However, rather than continue lower and fall off the edge of the cliff, the Dollar Index suddenly and mysteriously reversed course. It has now risen on 12 of the 17 trading days since reaching that low, and closed today at 74.55, a 5-month high. What caused this index to suddenly pull back from the brink and then reverse course to shoot higher over the past three weeks?

The Federal Reserve did not suddenly contract the amount of dollars in circulation. Its latest H.6 report shows that both M1 and M2 expanded in recent weeks, so there was no shortage of supply.

The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates during this period. Consequently, inflation adjusted interest rates remain negative. In other words, the annual inflation rate is higher than the amount of interest one can earn on a 1-year dollar deposit, which is highly inflationary and a major disincentive to holding dollars.

There has not been any news exceptionally favorable to the dollar. In fact, the banking problems in the United States continue to mount, while the federal government's deficit continues to soar out of control. On July 28th Reuters reported that "The Bush administration on Monday plans to project the U.S. budget deficit will soar to a new record...because of the slowing economy and an economic stimulus plan approved this year."

So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here's the proof.

When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve's custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.

So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.

With this intervention, central banks have bought some time. But alas, they have not fixed the problem. Central bank intervention does not make the dollar "as good as gold", the description that once accurately described the dollar.

In the final analysis, it is fundamental factors that determine the course of markets and the process of price discovery that results from them. Central bank intervention - like fiat currency itself - is ephemeral. In contrast, gold lasts throughout the ages. So what would you rather own? A sick dollar that it requires central bank intervention to prop it up? Or gold?

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NAVIGATING TOWARDS A GLOBAL RECESSION?

Recomiendo esta nota de RGE Monitor, a la vez que les recomiendo que vean dicha página.

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
RGE Monitor - Navigating Towards a Global Recession?| Aug 7, 2008

A few weeks back we surveyed a group of countries navigating towards (or through) recession. The list included the U.S., Canada, Spain, Ireland, Italy, the UK, the Baltics and New Zealand.

Now the growth engine of the EMU, Germany, is faltering, together with France. And a recession might be in the works for Japan as well. This essentially leaves us with a fully fledged G7 recession in the making.

After a long period of disinflation in the 1980s and 1990s, the rise of G7 inflation poses a dilemma for central bankers who must also grapple with credit crunch and risks of recession. The balance of risks is likely to keep G7 central banks from tightening aggressively, with some staying on hold for the rest of 2008. Others, like Australia and more so New Zealand, who have the luxury of high interest rates to start cutting from will likely loosen policy to stave off recession.


Last week we asked whether the U.S. economy is in recession or not. An official answer to this question is not likely to come anytime soon, but recent reports GDP and employment in particular are not auspicious.

U.S. inflation in its various manifestations PCE deflator, CPI, PPI, import inflation, inflation expectations - is at decade(s) highs and stands outside the Fed's comfort zone. As much of this inflation is driven by a weak dollar and external demand for commodities, rate hikes in the U.S. alone won't stop global inflation (though it may help). Moreover, the still benign trends in inflation and inflation expectations has left the Fed room to worry more about financial stability and a flagging economy at home. According to the consensus, fading stimulus from tax rebates and ongoing housing and financial crises will push back tightening to yearend or next year, however, a worsening of the growth outlook could even prompt the Fed to cut rates in the second half of the year.

While Canada may avoid a technical recession growth might be barely positive in Q2 after a contraction in Q1- output has been slowing. Buoyant domestic demand, spurred by a sustained terms of trade rise, could also now be fading as Canadian consumers and businesses are feeling the strains. With 75% ofCanada’s exports U.S. bound, it can’t escape aU.S.recession, and its financial links are significant too. Meanwhile housing and labor markets are starting cool. With the disinflationary effect of the Canadian dollar’s strength waning, the Bank of Canada looks to be firmly on hold for now after aggressive easing in H1.

In the UK, despite severe threats of a spike in inflation mostly due to higher food and oil prices, economic activity already shows clear signs of a slowdown. Measures of business and consumer confidence, the deteriorating housing market and the still quite fragile mortgage and credit markets might push the economy into a recession-like environment relatively soon. Surveys on the probability of a recession show an increase in the median forecast from 30% in June to 45% in July?, while many analysts already call for at least one reading of negative growth by the end of the first half of 2009.

UK’s fast-deteriorating inflation outlook has increased speculation of a BoE tightening cycle in the last couple of months. Nonetheless, the BoE will probably hold rates unchanged throughout the year as the economy is set to display much slower growth in the coming quarters. The BoE’s dilemma will most likely persist. So far the spike in CPI (+3.8%) has not affected average earnings, downplaying the case of a wage-price spiral fed by a self-fulfilling cycle of inflationary shocks and worsening expectations.

In the Eurozone economic indicators turned sharply lower after a buoyant Q1 GDP reading that fuelled hopes for a decoupling from the U.S. recession. Whether the ECB 25bp rate hike on July 3rd accelerated the business sentiment downturn or not remains an open question. The fact remains that many analysts now expect a negative Q2 GDP growth reading, and worries about persistently divergent growth paths among EMU members are emerging.

On a country basis, both Germany’s manufacturing and services leading indicators as measured by the PMI Survey point to slow but still expanding activity in July. After a decade of working through its post-reunification housing bust and restoring of corporate balance sheets, Germany finds itself in a relatively balanced macroeconomic position compared to its EMU peers. The combination of falling house prices, high inflation, and higher credit costs is particularly toxic for Spain whose leading indicators are hitting one record low after another. Economic analysts are also starting to sound alarm bells on Spain’s banking sector. Italy is the second laggard in the group of big four EMU countries. The lack of reforms and the continuing loss of competitiveness are clearly taking their toll now. France has seen the sharpest reversal in both consumer and business sentiment in Q2 coinciding with the turning of its housing market.

On the inflation front, headline HICP has been surpassed by its U.S. equivalent ‘s headline CPI. Like in the U.S., core inflation stands outside the ECB's comfort zone. However, unlike the U.S., wage indexation has led to automatic second-round effects, with inflation leading to wage increases in a few Eurozone countries. With a wary eye on a further rise in inflation expectations, the inflation-targeting ECB is the most likely to hike rates among the G7 in the rest of 2008. Some analysts believe one more hike is in store but slowing growth and lower inflation due to base effects in autumn could keep the ECB from that rate hike button.

Is Japan’s longest post-war growth period coming to an end? Most analysts agree Japan is headed for a slowdown, but many expect the world’s second-largest economy to avoid a severe, prolonged slump. There is no doubt that high food and fuel prices are denting domestic consumption, while cooling global demand appears to have stalled Japan’s export growth engine. Nevertheless, Japan’s problems seem relatively minor compared to the U.S. and certain EU countries. It has no house price bubble, its financial sector is basically healthy, and consumer price inflation - while rising - is still under 2.0% yoy.

Japan has only recently exited deflation. So while consumer prices have risen almost 2.0% over the past 12 months and are likely to rise further, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is still barely positive. Consequently, most analysts see little chance of a rate hike for the rest of 2008. As long as wage growth remains sluggish and price gains do not spread to the overall economy, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep the target rate at 0.5%.

What are the implications for the main emerging markets? Between them Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRICs) contributed about half of global growth in 2007 but they can’t escape a protracted slowing of G7 economies’ nor is their consumption large enough to propel global growth and if they slow, so might global commodity demand growth.

Inflation has been a global threat and it is not different for the BRIC economies. The inflation outlook and the responses to the worsening inflation are nonetheless different among those countries. Russia has the highest inflation figures and the least enforcing response, while Brazil has the lowest inflation figures with the most austere monetary policy response. Even though more than 20 Emerging Market central banks are following an inflation targeting regime as a monetary anchor, nearly every country is facing inflation figures above the center of the established target. The worsening of inflation readings in many cases is encouraging a more hawkish policy especially in cases where central banks are already behind the curve or where credibility needs to be boosted.

Brazil’s economic prospects are still favorable as domestic output growth continues underpinned by high business confidence and high commodity prices. So far Brazilian economic growth is expected to continue unabated in 2008. The pace of the expansion in Brazil is bound to be moderated by persistent inflationary pressures, as disposable incomes start to erode and business confidence is dented by tighter credit conditions. Brazil’s consumer prices increased 0.74% during June, taking the twelve-month inflation rate to 6.1%, with the food and drink category increasing 15%. The Brazilian Central Bank increased interest rates by 75bps to 13% in July and possibly more hikes will come soon to curb inflation.

Inflation is now eating away at Russia’s oil-fuelled consumption growth with the recent data showing flat real wage growth, slowing construction, retail sales and investment suggesting growth will slow in the second half of 2008. Meanwhile Russia’s human and physical capital constraints are real planned infrastructure investment hopes to make up for decades of under investment. Yet, 10 years after its financial crisis, Russia is in a much sounder financial position, having amassed $500 billion in foreign exchange reserves. With growth likely to slow and productivity low, the central bank is reluctant to engage in real monetary tightening, lest it bring a return of the liquidity problems it faced earlier this year or slow growth. Despite raising interest rates four times this year, interest rates remain very negative in real terms, likely contributing to the frothy Moscow office market.

After the stellar 9%-plus growth in 2006-07, India’s 2008 growth forecast has been lowered to 7-8%. In spite of being labeled as a domestic-demand driven economy resilient to global slowdown, the recent investment boom and above-potential growth were buoyed by imports and benign global liquidity conditions. Global financial turmoil and oil price shock have exposed India’s vulnerability to capital outflows and financing of twin deficits, posing the risk of asset market correction and currency depreciation even as domestic demand trends down on high inflation. India’s double-digit inflation running at a 13-year high is led by food shortages, commodity prices and government’s reduction of oil subsidies. But inflation risk is exacerbated by strong domestic demand and liquidity fueled by pre-election fiscal spending, credit growth and incomplete sterilization of capital inflows. Price controls, trade restrictions and ban on futures trading have only angered the private sector. After a series of interest rate hikes, further tightening is constrained by risks to demand slowdown so that only an easing of global commodity prices may be a blessing.

China’s growth has been decelerating for the past four quarters to reach just over 10% in Q2. While private consumption is now contributing a bit more to growth (though investment is still the biggest driver) and incomes are on the rise, inventory pileups could indicate overcapacity in some sectors. Exports to Europe, which marked double digit growth last year are now falling, manufacturing output seems to be contracting and exporters are complaining of higher labor and input costs. With a focus on growth, and headline inflation stabilized, the Chinese government is shifting away from its ‘tight’ monetary policy some lending curbs have been lifted and RMB appreciation has already stalled. See “Chinese Economic Outlook: China's Triple Threat of Slowing Growth, Inflation and Falling Asset Markets” and Rachel Ziemba’s “Is China Suffering an Olympic Shock?”
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VERY MODEST GOOD NEWS by Dr. Marc Faber

Adjunto esta nota que salió en The Daily Reckoning.

VERY MODEST GOOD NEWS by Dr. Marc Faber

I can see some – albeit very modest – improvement for the US stock market. For one, it appears that the slowdown and problems in other economies, such as the UK (a disaster waiting to happen), Italy, Spain, and Ireland, are even greater than in the US. Also, since numerous emerging stock markets have underperformed the US this year, some money is likely to be repatriated from countries such as India and China, where stock markets are down approximately 40% year-to-date. We should also consider that, as Joachim Fels noted, “Fifty of the 190 or so countries in the world now have inflation running at double-digit rates. Almost all of these are EM economies.” In my opinion, some emerging economies – contrary to expectations – could therefore be hit even harder than the US. So, the good news here is that the “bad news” is even worse in some other countries than in the US (though this may be hard to believe).


The media and some market commentators who were “bullish” until late June have noticed recently that we are in a bear market, because the major indices are down roughly 20% from their peak. This is a remarkable achievement in the annals of forecasting and market timing! How many stocks had to drop by between 50% and 99% before the media and some “bulls” who have continued to talk about another upward wave in stock prices being just around the corner, which would supposedly lift the indices to new highs, finally accepted that we are now in a bear market? Don’t forget that when stock market indices made new highs seven months ago, the media and most advisers were exuberantly optimistic – although most stocks were then already in downtrends. Moreover, sentiment figures (bulls versus bears) among individual investors and investment advisers are now heavily tilted towards the bearish side. Whenever sentiment has been this negative in the past, the odds favoured at least a short term rally. Still, I need to warn our readers that since sentiment remained so extremely optimistic between 2003 and 2007 while the stock market rose, it is possible that sentiment will remain extremely negative for a long time while the market continues to decline.

The third improvement I have noticed is that, from a technical point of view, the market has become “quite” (though not extremely) oversold. But again, I need to warn here that the market would now be oversold in the context of a bull market – not in the context of a bear market, during which the oversold condition could last for a very long time. I suppose that Ambac was already oversold at US$70, and where is the stock now? Moreover, at major turning points, markets can quickly reach oversold or overbought conditions and then work out these conditions without large corrections. Let me explain.

In the summer of 1982, US equities had become extremely depressed; they were no higher than in 1964, and were down in real terms by more than 70% from their 1966 “real” high. The Dow bottomed out at 769 on August 9 and, if I recall correctly, the stock market took off on August 18. By September 22, the Dow had reached 951 (up more than 20% from the August low). The two most overbought conditions I have seen up to that time had occurred at the end of August 1982, and then again on September 22. But, thereafter, the market continued to rise: to 1296 in November 1983, to 2746 at the August 1987 peak, and to the recent high of 14,198 on October 12, 2007.

So, I wish to stress that overbought and oversold conditions must always be put in the context of both the primary trend – up or down – and the phase of the bull or bear market in which they show up. Overbought conditions at the beginning of an uptrend, and oversold conditions at the beginning of a downtrend, are meaningless from a longer-term perspective! If we are indeed in a bear market, which is my view – and has been since the summer of 2007, the current oversold position is relevant only from a very short-term point of view.

The fourth improvement I see is that some previously strong stocks and groups such as US Steel (X), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), IBM, and the oil sector, as well as the Nasdaq and some of its leaders such as Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL), etc, are beginning to turn down. For the market leaders to collapse is an important precondition for a major low. But again, we need to understand that it will take much longer, and far lower prices, before the very strong stocks and sectors (mostly energy-related and materials) that have so far defied the bear market in financial stocks reach a major low.

Since I fully expect the financial crisis to spread into the real economy, I would sell those sectors and stocks that have so far defied the weakness in financial stocks. Another potentially good piece of news is that the current expansionary monetary policies make the stronger companies in an industry relatively stronger than their weaker competitors, which would then be reflected in strongly diverging stock performances. The weak company stocks could decline so much as to make them, at some point, attractive merger and acquisitions candidates for the financially stronger companies. Industry consolidation would in this scenario accelerate and lead to stronger pricing power (and inflation).

The last potentially good bit of news is that oil and other commodity prices may have reached an intermediate top. Should oil prices decline by, say, 20% to 40%, this fact will certainly be broadcasted by the media – as well as by ignorant cheerleaders and people who still don’t regard commodities as an asset class – as great news for the stock market! A relief rally would likely follow. But wait a minute: why would oil prices and other commodities decline meaningfully? Because of a lack of affordability and a weak economy around the world – not just in the US! This would lead to declining demand for raw materials and likely lower prices. (Supplies are unlikely to increase significantly, but they could be cut as a result of war, civil strife, or concerted action by the producers.) However, a weak economy or economic contraction around the world would be unlikely to be favourable for equities and corporate profits.

I need to make one more comment with respect to oil prices and commodities. It is not a strong US dollar that will lead to declining oil prices, as some commentators argue. What will bring about lower oil prices is a collapse of consumer spending in the US and elsewhere in the world. If US consumption collapses, the US trade and current account deficit will be halved and will lead to a drying up of global liquidity. I have discussed this relationship many times in the past and have clearly shown the relationship between the growth rate in Foreign Official US Dollar Reserves and the US dollar. Declining US consumption will be positive for the US dollar and will certainly bring down commodity prices because of lower demand (at least temporarily). But if you really think that such an outcome will be good for stocks, then dream on!

Finally, since the bull market in commodities began, there has been a body of people who have maintained that commodities are not an asset class. Some have even gone as far as to compare gold to washing machines. But consider the following: my dogs and my books are an asset for me, but maybe not to someone else. My dogs protect my house and my books. My books give me pleasure and – so I hope – some modest knowledge. But my dogs would be a liability to someone else if he lived in a secure condo building. (If there is such a thing as a secure condo building!) Also, my books would be useless to an illiterate person, since he would not be in a position to read them. A high-calibre mathematician is likely to be an asset for James Simons of Renaissance fame, but a huge liability in a rescue mission on Mount Everest. Water may be a huge asset if you are lost in the middle of the desert, but it is not an asset when you are standing in the rain without an umbrella and waiting for a date to arrive. So, the first point to understand is that anything can be an asset for somebody at some time, and not an asset for somebody else at some other time. Normally, cigarettes are not considered to be an asset, but in prisoners’ camps during wars, in wartime in general, and in times of hyperinflation, they are an asset – in fact, they replace cash banknotes.

Now, if someone defines an asset class as something that provides a cash flow, commodities may by this definition not be an asset. However, what if asset markets such as equities, bonds, and cash (T-bills) provide a negative return in real terms (inflation adjusted)? The moment when money loses its purchasing power because real interest rates are negative, and because we need to deal with people like Mr. Bernanke, assets such as raw land, commodities, art and collectibles do become a store of value and, therefore, represent a desirable asset class. All I wish to say is that the term “asset class” is extremely difficult to define, and that at different times and in different situations certain things and certain skills become an asset, whereas on other occasions they are useless. But one thing all my readers should clearly understand: when the last ship leaves the port as the enemy approaches, the captain of that ship will accept one kilogram of gold from you to buy your passage. I doubt that he will accept CDOs, derivative contracts, bonds or, for that matter, stock certificates of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. (Maybe by then the captain won’t even accept US dollars, because their value could decline precipitously during the voyage.) I may add that, in the financial sector, the last ship may be about to leave.

In sum, I believe that in the next few years the returns from equities will be disappointing (short-term rallies aside), which could cause other asset classes (especially industrial commodities) also to come under pressure. When I look around, I find it hard to identify any asset that is particularly attractive at this point. Therefore, in the absence of anything that promises far superior returns, I am still happy to accumulate physical gold. In democracies, where the leadership is afraid to ask for sacrifices from its citizens and with money printers at central banks, gold would seem to be the only sound currency.

Regards,

Dr. Marc Faber
for The Daily Reckoning

Editor’s Note: Dr. Marc Faber is the editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report and author of Tomorrow’s Gold , one of the best investment books on the market.
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CLUB DE INVERSORES

Me encuentro pronto a lanzar un Club de Inversores. Mi idea es ofrecer a sus miembros distintos proyectos de inversión los cuales considere interesantes para invertir. Y además, como dicen los americanos: “put your Money were your Mouth is”, que no es otra cosa que ofrecer inversiones donde yo haya invertido, o lo tenga pensado hacer.

Hay muchos profesionales que no tienen relación con el mundo de las inversiones, y que además no cuentan con el tiempo suficiente como para adentrarse en el mismo. Pretendo facilitarles el camino.


Cuando uno trabaja, además de generar los ingresos para vivir, intenta ir ahorrando para poder retirarse tranquilo en el futuro, sin depender de la magra jubilación. Hoy es muy difícil lograr esto por los vaivenes de nuestra economía, pero mucho más difícil se hace si uno no sabe como hacerlo, o si no lo planifica.
Es poco lo que se sabe de una buena planificación financiera, y cuando se tiene contacto con la misma, generalmente ya han transcurrieron muchos años donde seguramente habremos dejado pasar oportunidades de inversión. Y en el mundo de las inversiones el tiempo es oro (y no es una frase hecha).
Para entenderlo veamos como funciona el esquema básico de las inversiones: la capitalización.

Del excelente libro A Random Walk Down Wall Street de Burton Malkiel recordé un comentario sobre si fue o no un buen negocio para los indios que le vendieron, según se cuenta, la isla de Manhattan a los blancos por u$ 24 en 1626. Obviamente se pensaba que los indios fueron una vez más estafados, pero si los mismos hubieran invertido ese monto a una tasa promedio, digamos del 6% anual, hoy tendrían mas de u$ 100.000 millones (cien trillions de los americanos). Creo que hoy podrían recomprar con ese dinero gran parte de Manhattan con sus mejoras incluidas.

Hay también un cuento relacionado con el invento del ajedrez. Según se cuenta un rey aburrido pidió a sus súbditos que inventaran un juego. A quien inventase el mejor juego el rey le otorgaría lo que quisiesen.
Así es que un día un poblador se apareció con un juego, luego llamado ajedrez, que fascinó al rey. Cumpliendo su promesa el rey le dijo al poblador que pidiese su premio.
El poblador le pidió su premio en granos de arroz. Para ello pidió que en la primera casilla pusieran un grano. En la segunda el doble de la primera. En la tercera el doble de la segunda, y así sucesivamente hasta completar los 64 casilleros. Obviamente no había granos suficientes en todo el reino para cumplir con semejante pedido. Acá finaliza el cuento ya que hay dos versiones sobre el final. Algunos dicen que el rey sintió que se le estaba tomando el pelo, y mando a cortarle la cabeza al pobre poblador. Otras que cumplió con su palabra.

Ahora bien, a donde quiero llegar con estos ejemplos. A la importancia del tiempo en un plan de inversiones a largo plazo. Si uno inicia su plan de inversiones a los 25 años con u$ 1.000, y los invierte a una tasa, digamos del 4% hasta que se retira a los 65 años podrá juntar unos u$ 4.800. Si la tasa fuese del 6% juntaría u$ 10.286.
Ahora supongamos que en ambos casos se agregan u$ 1.000 cada año tendríamos u$ 99.827 y u$ 165.048
Podemos seguir jugando con los números pero ya podemos sacar algunas conclusiones:

- cuanto antes se empiece con un plan de inversión, mayor será el resultado final
- a veces no tenemos que buscar la inversión salvadora, sino elaborar una cartera que nos permita tener un retorno constante
- tener la conducta de incorporar fondos a la cartera de inversión todos los años ayuda al plan de inversiones


Hoy día en argentina cuesta mucho decidir donde invertir los ahorros que uno pueda tener. La historia económica del país nos ha dado demasiados ejemplos de los riesgos que implica invertir en activos financieros locales: bonos, acciones, plazos fijos, etc. Desde los defaults, devaluaciones, y confiscación de depósitos, la tarea de buscar inversiones dentro del país se ha tornado mucho más difícil. Por eso es que surgieron mucho las inversiones inmobiliarias y las agropecuarias tratando de escapar a los efectos negativos que generan los distintos gobierno de turno. Pero siempre la mano del estado nos persigue y no nos deja invertir en paz (retenciones móviles). Por eso hay que seguir buscando.

Por lo pronto no garantizo el santo grial, ya que no existe la inversión sin riesgo. Solo hay que evaluar muy bien la relación riesgo/beneficio antes de tomar una decisión.
También es importante fijar el horizonte de nuestra inversión, y en este punto quiero hacer un alto. Prefiero buscar inversiones de mediano, que las de corto plazo. Estas últimas no las descarto, pero requieren de un esfuerzo “full time”. Soy conciente que en la argentina pensar en el mediano plazo parece ridículo, pero así y todo hay que ser paciente si se quiere hacer buenos negocios.

Otro concepto que considero interesante es que la plata debe trabajar para uno, y no uno para la plata. Por eso dejar los ahorros en el colchón, y después matarse trabajando es un error. Haciendo un manejo racional de los ahorros uno podría disfrutar más de la vida, que al fin y al cabo es nuestro activo más preciado.

Finalmente quiero comentar en forma sencilla cuales son los criterios básicos que utilizo en la selección de proyectos de inversión.
Primero me enfoco en el management que llevará adelante el proyecto; que conocimientos tienen, experiencia, y seriedad.
Segundo analizo el plan de negocios; cual es el producto o servicio que se va a ofrecer, cual es el mercado target, que retornos esperan, etc.
Y finalmente profundizo en todos el marco legal de la transacción; contratos, responsabilidades y obligaciones, etc.

Como es imposible saber de todo antes de invertir, me cubro en estos 3 aspectos que considero fundamentales, ya que al final del día hay que correr riesgos para ganar. Solo hay que ser conciente de los riegos que se decide correr, y cual es la ganancia estimada que recibiremos a cambio.

Próximamente les informaré sobre el primer proyecto que estoy analizando. Y no dejen de consultarme si les interesa esta propuesta.
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