¿DONDE ESTÁ EL PISO 2?

Para no ser tan negativo comparto una visión sobre que estaríamos cerca del piso. Esta en inglés pero vale la pena leerla.

The Recession Has Bottomed
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
January 16, 2008

I know it's bad out there...

But you must remember, this recession WILL end.

Chances are excellent we're more than halfway through. You have to go back to the early 1930s (the Great Depression) to find a recession that lasted longer than 16 months.
Since this recession started in late 2007, it will undoubtedly be the longest since the Great Depression. But as I'll show today, I believe the recession has already hit bottom and could end before the end of this year.


Stock prices typically bottom out in the middle of recessions. This is because stock prices "look ahead." They "see" recovery before recovery actually arrives.

Consumers don't look ahead like this... They are interested in their present situation, which is not good. So while stock prices can bottom in the middle of recessions, consumer confidence typically bottoms at the end of recessions. People don't see things getting less bad... It's a "darkest-before-the-dawn" type thing.

It helps to see what I'm talking about. So take a look at this chart, which shows how the stock market behaves during recessions (the shaded blue periods)...


If you focus on the two longest recessions (1973-75 and 1981-82), you can see stocks bottomed in the mid-to-late innings of those two major recessions.

Now take a look at consumer confidence...


Again, focus on the last two "real" recessions... around '74 and '82. You can see consumer confidence bottomed just about at the end of those recessions. Today, consumer confidence sits at a record low – lower than in the 193-75 recession, which was the worst recession of our time.

These two things – the stock market and consumer confidence – paint a simple picture.
If the November stock-market bottom holds, and the record low in consumer confidence holds, we may be closer to the end of this recession than just about anyone thinks. It's too early to know for sure, but these factors suggest the recession may have bottomed, and things are already getting "less bad."

I believe and hope that's true. If I'm right, you should make a pile of money investing in both stocks and bonds in 2009.

Good investing,

Steve