PETROLEO: U$135 Y ¿SUBIENDO?

El petróleo sigue siendo noticia. La fuerte suba de los últimos días está replanteando las proyecciones de su precio para el resto del año. Otros esperan una corrección.
Mientras tanto mucho se sigue analizando como seguira el curso de este commodity.

A continuación transcribo el final de un artículo que salió en The Daily Reckoning (Last Dance for Oil by Chris Mayer), para quienes piensen que la suba esta cerca de su final, pero quieren obtener redito de la misma.

So the key takeaways here are these: The price of oil has room to run yet, in part because of the growth in money supply and in part because of pressing international demand. Secondly, even if we already saw oil peak, history says that prices won't retreat by much over the next several years. And finally, the capital spending boom by the big oil companies is just getting started, which is great news for investors in oil field services companies.

The big idea here is well servicing…

It's really a great and kind of sneaky way to play an undeniable trend in oil and gas: the depletion of older wells past their peak production. Well servicing helps you get a little extra out of every well. A well service rig is the workhorse that does the well servicing.

Here's the life cycle of a typical oil well…

Every time somebody drills a well, it creates an annuity for the well service industry. That's because the maintenance work follows the life span of a typical well. If you don't service your well, your production rate declines much more rapidly. So if you want to stay in business, you keep servicing your existing wells. You may not drill new ones, but you keep what you have.

The second key to remember is this: The more mature the oil or gas field, the more well servicing work needed. Well servicing doesn't typically have the same ups and downs as exploration. Well service fleets provide much more durable and predictable cash flows. I expect all that money the big majors spend on exploration will lead to a lot of new drills and a long tail of new business for well servicing companies.